2012: The End of the Automotive World?

The Mayans predicted the world would come to an end in 2012.

Maybe they were right, as this news from analyst Grant Thornton LLP could signal the end of times:

Foreign automakers will build more cars on U.S. soil than the Detroit 3… by 2012.

Epic, isn’t it?

The analysts predict by 2012 the Detroit 3 (I’ve retired my use of the “Big 3″ term) will produce 7.5 million vehicles, compared to an estimated 8 million produced domestically by the likes of BMW, Volkswagen, Honda, Toyota, and Hyundai. Most of those 8 million “foreign” cars will be built with non-union U.S. labor, which is enough reason for me to buy my “American” Toyota and be proud of it.

More good news: U.S. automakers should return to profitability by 2012, even if they reduce production by 35 percent from 2008 numbers. The bad news is for the suppliers, who will have to adapt to these changes in order to survive. I think many won’t.

The whole landscape of what “Made in the USA” means is changing. Does this mean the world is ending? Hardly.

More like a whole new one is beginning.

Are you bothered by the news that foreign automakers will, by 2012, build more vehicles in the U.S. than the Detroit 3?

-tgriffith

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Shanghai Steps Out

First, it’s clear that Auto Shanghai 2009 (closing today) was a huge hit. Attended by up to 90,000 people a day, with a record 1,500 carmakers from around the world displaying cars in the space of 30 football fields, Shanghai was larger than life.

Big luxo cars were again prominent, but so were a multitude of small ones - for example, Chery’s IQ, the Panda Cross, and lots more. Edmunds gives a good rundown of these here, and there are more good pix here. Plenty of oddball cars too, like the Rolls Phantom clone Geely GE, shown below, and the electric Nissan NUVU concept.

The Chinese takeover of the world car market hasn’t happened, of course, but the trend has been clear for a while now. They haven’t got the cash but they’ve got the numbers.

Car sales in China hit a monthly record of over 1 million [units] in March, exceeding the U.S. for the third month in a row. 70 percent of the cars sold in China were affordable models that are 1.6 liters or below. This as most car buyers are paying much attention to their spending habits.

So, the boosters in China are more than happy, particularly about the lowered car purchase taxes (from 10 to 5 percent) that have produced some of the demand. We cheer them on, even in their fractured English:

In any case, a least rousing to observe a present of self-confidence, or a least can observe that the circumstances of Chinese enterprises is not horrid, as fineness, the burden of multiple, just hold back and see!

Regarding the Chinese market, the U.S. will have a lot of catching up to do. How do you think our carmakers can accomplish that?

—jgoods

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Rinspeed: More Cutting-Edge Madness

At Geneva next week, we will see revealed a transformative vision of future automotive adaptability. We will see revealed a sports car that quickly changes into a “sports van” for three people. We will see (drum roll, please) . . . the iChange. You can also see a really boring video here.

Like its predecessor, the submersible sQuba, the iChange makes waves. A handsome low-slung beauty (but with rear fender skirts!), the car is powered by lithium-ion batteries driving an electric motor the company claims will propel it to 137 mph and get it from 0 to 60 mph in just over 4 seconds.

An iPhone controls “the most important vehicle functions.” Imagine driving this thing at 200 km/h while fiddling with your iPhone, giving new meaning to the phrase “brain-free, hands-free driving.” There’s a special Harman/Kardon sound system that uses less energy, a dual heating system (electric for short distances, ethanol powered for longer ones), special wool for the interior, solar panels for the roof, and on and on. The car aims to be both mean and green.

Says Rinspeed founder and resident change agent Frank Rinderknect, “If we want to maintain our individual mobility in the future we have to rethink the car in its entirety, without taboos. Most of all, we have to take its ecological aspects into consideration.”

Who knows how far Frank’s crazy ideas will go? We think he had a particularly good one for the E2 concept, a Fiat 500 that will switch from 60 to 160 hp. More on that later this week.

If we have to “rethink the car in its entirety,” where would you start? How far would you go?

—jgoods

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